Spain vs. Turkiye—2026 World Cup Qualifier: Preview, Predictions and Lineups

Spain are odds-on to secure their spot at the 2026 FIFA World Cup when they face Türkiye on the final matchday of Group E.

The European champions boast a three-point lead over their upcoming opponents, but their vastly superior goal difference means even a rare defeat for La Roja here almost certainly won’t be enough for Türkiye to snatch their place at next summer’s tournament.

Luis de la Fuente’s side maintained their 100% record in qualifying by thumping Georgia 4–0 at the weekend, while Türkiye kept their very slim hopes of topping the group alive by beating Bulgaria 2–0.

The visitors’ only defeat of qualifying so far arrived in the reverse fixture, when Spain produced an imperious showing in a remarkable 6–0 rout. Success elsewhere means Vincenzo Montella’s men are guaranteed a spot in the playoffs, which will take place next March.

Only a 14-goal swing on Tuesday will see the visitors usurp their hosts.

Here is Sports Illustrated’s guide to this World Cup qualifier.

Spain vs. Turkiye Head-to-Head Record (Last Five Games)

Current Form (All Competitions)

Spain didn’t miss a beat against Georgia despite a litany of key absences, with Pedri, Rodri, Dani Carvajal and Lamine Yamal all absent from Luis de la Fuente’s squad this month.

Dean Huijsen also missed Saturday’s triumph with a groin injury and won’t play against Türkiye. Xabi Alonso will be pleased to learn that the defender has returned to Madrid.

While the hosts have all but qualified, there’s unlikely to be wholesale change from Saturday’s starting XI. Arsenal duo Martín Zubimendi and Mikel Merino will remain in the engine room, while Real Sociedad stalwart Mikel Oyarzabal so often delivers for the national team when called upon.

Pablo Barrios, Marcos Llorente and Yeremy Pino are pushing for starts.

Spain predicted lineup vs. Türkiye (4-3-3): Simón; Llorente, Cubarsí, Laporte, Cucurella; Merino, Zubimendi, Ruiz; Oyarzabal, Torres, Pino.

Türkiye have all of their heavy hitters available for their revenge mission in Seville, with Real Madrid’s Arda Güler facing up against a few familiar faces on Tuesday. He’ll spearhead the away team’s creative department, while Kenan Yıldız will be tasked with supplying the finishing touch in the final third.

Hakan Çalhanoğlu will have a new midfield partner on Tuesday because of Ismail Yüksek’s suspension.

Kaan Ayhan is likely to miss out through injury, while Abdülkerim Bardakcı and Kerem Aktürkoğlu are hopeful of shaking off minor knocks to feature.

Türkiye predicted lineup vs. Spain (4-2-3-1): Çakır; Çelik, Demiral, Bardakcı, Kadıoğlu; Çalhanoğlu, Kökçü; Aydın, Güler, Yıldız; Aktürkoğlu.

Italy had a similar task to Türkiye on Sunday evening, but the Azzurri, instead of staging a miraculous triumph, were thrashed 4–1 by Norway on home soil. It’s easy to envisage Tuesday’s visitors succumbing to a similar fate.

There was an expectation that Türkiye would compete fiercely with La Roja in the reverse fixture, but they were instead on the receiving end of a Spanish masterclass. The hosts are unlikely to repeat that level of performance here with a bunch of key players missing, but they’ve shown throughout qualifying that they’re not reliant on a group of individuals for collective success.

This one will be much closer than the September battering, but Spain will finish qualifying with their perfect record still in tact.

Prediction: Spain 3–1 Türkiye

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