Published on
January 8, 2026
Oxford Economics predicts a significant surge in global tourism for 2026, with the US, Spain, Italy, Turkey, Greece, France, China, Albania, and Germany leading the way. This explosive growth is driven by a combination of factors, including the post-pandemic recovery, rising disposable incomes, and the increasing demand for diverse travel experiences. With these destinations positioned at the top of the rankings, they are set to see unprecedented numbers of international visitors, making 2026 a pivotal year for the global travel industry.
Greece has secured its place among the top ten most popular destinations for 2026, even as global economic uncertainty looms. The Mediterranean region is poised to see significant growth, benefiting from its unique combination of value-for-money options and authentic, cultural experiences, making it an attractive option for travelers worldwide.
According to the latest report by Oxford Economics – Global Key Themes 2026 – international arrivals globally are expected to rise by 8% compared to 5% in 2025. Europe is expected to see a growth rate of 6%, up from 5% last year, while global GDP growth slows to 2.7% from 2.9%. Despite these economic challenges, the demand for travel is expected to remain strong. Key drivers include improved traveler sentiment, China’s resurgence in outbound travel, and the ongoing recovery of the Middle East. Southern Europe, particularly the Mediterranean, is consolidating its position as a dominant global tourism hub.
In 2026, four Mediterranean countries – Spain, Italy, Turkey, and Greece – will feature among the world’s ten most visited destinations. Spain, in particular, continues to close the gap with France, signaling the potential for Spain to become the leading global destination in the coming years. Greece maintains its top-ten position, underlining the lasting appeal of its tourism model, which focuses on high-quality, authentic experiences. This model has proven to be a significant competitive advantage for Greece in the global tourism market.
The United States, after a 6% drop in international arrivals in 2025 due to trade-related uncertainties, is projected to see a 4% growth in 2026, though it will not fully recover from the previous year’s losses. The Asia-Pacific region, on the other hand, is bouncing back with impressive growth of 13%, driven by a 26% rise in Chinese outbound travel. However, it is expected that the region won’t reach pre-pandemic levels until 2027. Meanwhile, the Middle East is experiencing a dynamic recovery, with the region registering an explosive 13% growth, bolstered by easing tensions and significant investments in tourism infrastructure.
According to the Oxford Economics analysis, the top ten global destinations by international arrivals in 2026, in order, are: France, Spain, China, the United States, Italy, Turkey, Mexico, Japan, the United Kingdom, and Greece.
Despite the pressures of inflation and slower interest rate cuts, travel continues to be a top consumer priority. One of the most significant shifts in traveler behavior is the growing emphasis on value-for-money options. Travelers are seeking affordable luxury experiences, along with authentic cultural engagements that offer a genuine connection to the destinations they visit. The desire for value doesn’t necessarily equate to a demand for low-budget options. In fact, 73% of respondents in the latest Travel Industry Monitor survey highlighted the importance of affordable luxury, suggesting that while travelers face budget constraints, they are willing to spend more on meaningful, enriching experiences. This trend aligns with the broader focus on quality travel experiences, rather than simply seeking the cheapest options available.
The Mediterranean stands out as a key winner in this evolving landscape, offering a mix of sun, sea, and strong cultural identities, all at competitive prices. Albania, Malta, and Montenegro are among the countries making significant strides, with Albania particularly rising from 67th place in 2010 to 36th in 2026. The country’s affordable prices, improved flight connections, and favorable entry policies have contributed to this upward trajectory.
In Asia, countries like Thailand, Vietnam, and Hong Kong are benefitting from increased demand, particularly driven by the growing number of Chinese travelers. Meanwhile, Morocco is strengthening its position as an affordable yet authentic destination in anticipation of the 2030 World Cup. On the other hand, Germany continues to lose ground, primarily due to high costs and a more limited appeal compared to sun-and-sea destinations, which are currently more popular.
Another notable trend in 2026 is the revival of “dupe” destinations, which offer similar experiences to popular hotspots at lower costs. The Philippines, for example, is expected to attract more visitors due to its weak peso, making it an affordable alternative to more expensive Asia-Pacific destinations. Indonesia’s ongoing initiative to promote its tourist villages, which offer personalized, authentic experiences, will continue to grow in popularity. Several Eastern European countries, such as Hungary and Azerbaijan, are also seeing a boost in tourism, driven by their attractive pricing and growing infrastructure that supports culturally rich vacations at lower costs than their Western European counterparts.
The role of artificial intelligence (AI) in shaping the future of travel is becoming increasingly significant. AI is already a central tool for finding deals and personalizing travel options, particularly for younger generations. Gen Z and Millennials are using AI tools for travel planning at a rate over three times higher than older generations. With AI-based functionalities integrated into online travel agencies (OTAs), review sites, and social media platforms, AI is revolutionizing how travelers plan and book their trips. Destinations that leverage AI to enhance customer targeting and ROI will have a competitive edge in the increasingly data-driven tourism landscape.
Oxford Economics forecasts explosive tourism growth in 2026, with the US, Spain, Italy, Turkey, Greece, France, China, Albania, and Germany leading the rankings due to post-pandemic recovery, increased disposable incomes, and a growing demand for diverse travel experiences.
In addition to technological advances, mega-events are expected to play a crucial role in shaping tourism demand in 2026. The Winter Olympics in Milan and Cortina are expected to attract millions of international visitors, significantly boosting the local economy. Similarly, the FIFA World Cup 2026, co-hosted by the United States, Canada, and Mexico, will have a substantial impact, with an estimated 1.24 million international visitors to the U.S. alone. This event will contribute to seasonal peaks in travel demand, creating strong spikes in tourism revenue for the host countries.
