Andy Schooler made a decent profit on his match bets at last year’s Australian Open. Here are his picks for the opening day of the 2026 tournament.
Tennis betting tips: Australian Open matches
1pt Gabriel Diallo to win a set v Alex Zverev at 9/10 (betway)
1pt Jenson Brooksby (+5.5) to beat Alexander Bublik on the game handicap at 6/5 (Spreadex, Sporting Index)
Alex Zverev v Gabriel Diallo
This immediately stood out as a match which could be closer than the odds suggest.
For a start, we’ve got two big servers playing in the heat of the day when conditions should be fairly slick.
It will be the pair’s first meeting so Zverev may take a bit of time to get used to the Canadian’s delivery – and potentially could be caught cold.
The way I’m heading here is for Diallo to outperform his odds and he’s tempting to win a set at close to even money.
Zverev hasn’t always got off to a flying start Down Under – he’s dropped at least a set in three of his last five first-round matches in Melbourne.
The opponents were Dominik Koepfer, Juan Pablo Varillas (who won two) and Marcos Giron. None was ranked in the top 50 as Diallo is.
Zverev did make the final here 12 months ago but his season didn’t really kick on from there. He spent much of the second half speaking about not being fully fit.
Neither did he cut a happy figure at the recent United Cup at which he ranted during a defeat to the rusty Hubert Hurkacz, who hadn’t played for six months.
Diallo is a decent player and winning a set here certainly isn’t beyond him.
For those seeking bigger odds, 11/4 about him winning the opening set is worthy of consideration.
Alexander Bublik v Jenson Brooksby
After his season-opening victory in Hong Kong, Bublik became a top-10 player for the first time.
However, his record at the Australian Open is frankly awful – 3-7 win-loss with first-round defeats in each of the last three years. Five of his seven defeats have been in straight sets, while he’s held serve just 71% of the time across those 10 matches.
That all seems strange given the faster-than-average conditions should suit his big serve. Maybe it’s the heat – it’s due to hit 29C in Melbourne on Sunday, although it’s worth noting this match is scheduled for the evening session.
That will lessen the heat effect but also produce slower conditions, which should favour Brooksby, who is a great defender.
The American will look to drag out the rallies and frustrate Bublik, which is often not too difficult to do given his mental frailties.
Brooksby lost in the second round of his warm-up event in Auckland, although defeat to Sebastian Baez doesn’t look too bad given the stunning start to the campaign that the Argentine has made.
Notably, he won his only previous meeting with Bublik with ease back in 2022 and he’s generally enjoyed facing the big servers over the years – he has wins over John Isner and Reilly Opelka on his CV.
It’s tempting to back the upset at 10/3 but I’ll take the safer option of the handicap market where Brooksby gets a 5.5-game start.
It hopefully won’t be needed but Bublik is certainly no stranger to a brain fade – despite his strong 2025 season he still managed to lose four love sets.
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Posted at 13:15 GMT on 17/01/26
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