For decades, Spain was the envy of Europe thanks to its sunny beaches, vibrant cities and a tourism industry that was a key driver of its economy. But as the summer lights fade, a more worrying reality is emerging: Spain’s tourism engine appears to be losing steam.
According to new analysis by Exceltur, the Alliance for Sustainable Tourism Development, tourism GDP grew by just 2.8% in the peak summer season – lower than the 3.3% forecast. The development, according to Exceltur, could mark the end of tourism’s “unbridled dominance” as the driving force of the Spanish economy.
“We had hoped that the upward trend would continue,” said Oscar Perelli, executive vice president of Exceltur, commenting that “tourism will not remain the main engine of growth.”
Performance below expectations
Despite the positive balance in revenues, which was mainly based on price increases, this season did not come close to the optimism of previous years. Hoteliers, restaurateurs and tour operators recorded more “lukewarm” performances compared to the dynamic summers of 2022 and 2023.
A hotelier in Madrid spoke of a “positive but uncertain” result, noting that profit margins are becoming increasingly vulnerable to global economic pressures.
Weak wallets, stagnant domestic demand
Exceltur attributes the slowdown mainly to economic fatigue in key source markets. Inflation, rising energy prices and falling consumer confidence have reduced Europeans’ disposable spending on travel.
Foreign visitors have maintained their relative income, but domestic tourism demand has remained stagnant. The Spanish, pressured by the rising cost of living, have preferred short or local holidays – resulting in no increase in domestic overnight stays.
Markets that fell – and those that held up
The main European markets gave a mixed picture.
German visitors fell by 4.4%,
the French by 0.8%,
while the British saw an increase of 3.3%, thanks to more affordable packages in Andalusia.
Ireland recorded a rise of almost 6%,
and Portugal an impressive 7% increase, with a focus on regions such as Extremadura.
The picture shows the increasing vulnerability of an industry that depends on a few, traditional markets.
A cloudy landscape, with bright exceptions
Exceltur forecasts just 2% growth in the fourth quarter, citing the “complex international geoeconomic environment”.
Tensions in the Middle East, uncertainties around the US elections and restrictive measures in major European economies are weighing on bookings and business travel.
However, some regions are showing resilience:
Cantabria, Castilla-La Mancha, the Basque Country and Madrid are performing better, attracting travelers looking for authentic experiences and sustainable tourism – away from the traditional “sun & sand” paradigm.
Shifting towards diversification
This slowdown acts as a warning bell for an economy where tourism represents over 12% of GDP and employs hundreds of thousands of workers. A prolonged downturn could have knock-on effects on local economies and related sectors, such as agri-food and retail.
Exceltur is calling for urgent diversification: investment in cultural, thematic and eco-tourism, staff training and unified European policies that will strengthen the resilience of the sector.
From hymns to silences – a new era
Spain is not losing its tourism; it is transforming it. From the era of mass flow and volume, it seems to be moving into a phase where quality, sustainability and added value will be the new criteria for success.
As Perelli sums up, “tourism is not ending – it is changing pace”. And perhaps this calmer pace will ultimately lead to more stable and balanced growth.