Published on
January 3, 2026
Tourism numbers on the Costa del Sol are showing signs of decline in 2025, with a 1.1% drop in overall visitor numbers compared to the previous year. International cooling has contributed to this decline, with a modest 0.4% rise in international tourism failing to offset the 3.8% fall in domestic tourism. Rising accommodation prices, with a 7.1% increase in hotel room rates, have also impacted the region’s appeal. Despite these challenges, the Costa del Sol has shown resilience, particularly in rural tourism, which saw a 33% increase in arrivals and 31% growth in overnight stays. These positive figures contrast with a 1.3% decrease in overnight stays across the region as a whole. While international markets such as Germany and France have shown declines, rural and alternative accommodation options continue to perform well, helping the region maintain some stability amidst the downturn.
The Costa del Sol, a celebrated coastal destination in Spain’s Malaga province, has witnessed a dip in tourism numbers for the first time since the post-Covid recovery. According to the latest report from the Costa del Sol tourist board, based on data from Spain’s National Institute of Statistics (INE), the region has reached its peak in terms of tourism. However, a noticeable decline has emerged, primarily driven by a cooling in international demand and a continued fall in domestic tourism.
A Slight Decline in Visitors and Overnight Stays
Tourism data for the first ten months of 2025 reveals a decline in both guest numbers and overnight stays across various types of accommodations on the Costa del Sol. The total number of guests staying in hotels, tourist apartments, and campsites decreased by 1.1%. This drop has been largely attributed to a 3.8% reduction in domestic tourism, while international tourism saw only a slight rise of 0.4%. Despite this uptick, the number of overnight stays also experienced a decline of 1.3%, with a 5.7% fall in stays from Spanish tourists and a marginal 0.1% increase in foreign visitors.
As Malaga region enters the final months of the year, the total number of visitors to the Costa del Sol’s tourist accommodations (excluding private rentals) has dropped by 78,454 compared to the same period last year. Specifically, there were 7,116,353 visitors, a decrease in the volume of overnight stays by 366,927, leaving the region with a total of 27,087,197 overnight bookings. This marks a significant shift after years of steady recovery.
Accommodation Prices on the Rise Amid Lower Demand
While the decline in tourism numbers has been evident, accommodation prices have continued to rise, contributing to the industry’s challenges. Hotels, in particular, saw an average room price increase of 7.1%, reaching 138.34 euros per night by October 2025. Despite this hike, accommodation offerings on the Costa del Sol have expanded significantly, with a 7.3% rise in the number of accommodation businesses, totaling 95,465 establishments. This increase has also been matched by a growth of over 700,000 beds, a large part of which has been driven by the booming rental home market.
Rural Tourism Shows Resilience
While the overall statistics paint a picture of decline, certain segments of tourism are thriving. Rural tourism, for example, has been performing well, with both the number of arrivals and overnight stays seeing increases of 33% and 31%, respectively. The growth has been particularly marked among national tourists, who have taken to rural homes in increasing numbers, possibly due to the lower cost of rural accommodation. National tourism in this segment has surged by 92% in stays and tourists, demonstrating a shift toward more affordable travel options during these uncertain economic times.
Campsites on the Costa del Sol have also fared better than other accommodation types, showing a positive trend, albeit at a slower rate.
The Hotel Sector Faces Challenges
However, it is the hotel sector that has seen the most significant decline, with hotel guests falling by 1.6% and overnight stays stagnating. National tourism, in particular, has been struggling, with reductions of 8% and 6%, respectively. This decline has not been sufficiently offset by the 2% rise in international visitors, suggesting that international markets are not picking up the slack left by domestic tourists.
One area that has notably underperformed is the tourist apartment sector, with all indicators in the red, except for a marginal 0.2% increase in the number of Spanish arrivals. This suggests that visitors are increasingly opting for more traditional types of accommodation, such as hotels or rural homes.
Projections for 2026 Look Less Optimistic
Despite strong initial data from the Christmas period, which saw rural homes near capacity and hotels performing better, the outlook for early 2026 is not promising. The Association of Hoteliers of the Costa del Sol (Aehcos) projects a hotel occupancy rate of 54.9% for December, a slight decrease of 1.7 percentage points compared to December 2024. Aehcos has also forecasted a significant decline for January 2026, with occupancy expected to fall to 53.4%, down from 60.5% in the previous year. This downward trend is anticipated to continue into February, with occupancy rates expected to hit just 56.6%, compared to 71.56% in 2025.
José Luque, president of Aehcos, has warned that these figures highlight the importance of diversifying tourism markets, reducing seasonality, and enhancing air connectivity to maintain the competitiveness of the Costa del Sol as a year-round destination.
Key International Markets Showing Declines
A notable trend in the 2025 tourism report is the decline in key international markets. Countries like Germany, France, and the Netherlands have all shown significant decreases in tourism numbers, despite historically being among the top markets for the region. Specifically, France has seen an 11% drop, the United States 13.7%, and Italy a staggering 32% reduction in the first ten months of the year. In contrast, countries such as the United Kingdom, Ireland, Poland, Sweden, Switzerland, and several African nations have shown positive growth.
This decrease in visitors from European countries, which traditionally constitute the core of Costa del Sol’s tourist arrivals, is worrying. At the same time, the region’s airports have seen passenger arrivals from markets like Germany, France, Sweden, Denmark, and Norway dipping into the red.
Challenges Ahead for the Costa del Sol
Looking forward, it is clear that the Costa del Sol is facing several challenges. The cooling of international tourism, the rising cost of accommodation, and the decline in traditional European markets could result in a more difficult year ahead for Malaga region. However, the resilience shown by rural tourism and certain niche markets offers a glimmer of hope for the area, which will need to innovate and adapt if it hopes to maintain its position as one of Spain’s leading tourist destinations.
As we enter 2026, all eyes will be on how the Costa del Sol adapts to these evolving trends and whether it can continue to attract visitors during the off-peak months. Efforts to boost air connectivity, diversify markets, and reduce the impact of seasonality will be crucial for the region’s tourism future.
