Monday, 22 December 2025, 17:34
A cold and unpleasant Christmas is on the cards in Malaga, with a high probability of rain in the province. Although the sun has prevailed for much of today (Monday), Spain’s state meteorological agency’s forecast suggests that the weather will worsen from Tuesday afternoon onwards. Aemet has raised the probability of rainfall in Malaga city to 60% for that day.
This has been confirmed by SUR’s local weather expert José Luis Escudero. In his blog ‘Tormentas y Rayos’, the forecaster predicts local showers throughout the province but no significant accumulations. “The snow level will be around 1,300 metres. As for the wind, it will blow from the west,” he warns, although the ‘terral’ wind will ease “from early afternoon” on Tuesday. “There is no doubt that it will be cold throughout the province,” he said, recommending coats and layers of warm clothes.
The festive season is expected to be cold in general. “The weather models point to the arrival of an isolated storm over the Iberian Peninsula. An anticyclonic blockade in the British Isles will facilitate the arrival of successive cold air pockets, which will directly reach Spain and Portugal. As a result, temperatures are expected to fall, with notable anomalies for this time of year of -1C to -3C, compared to the average for the country during Christmas week,” Meteored weather portal experts said.
On Wednesday, Christmas Eve, Aemet expects showers to return to Malaga province. For now, the probability of precipitation in Malaga city from midday onwards is 90%, but it ranges from 65% in points on the western Costa del Sol such as Estepona and Marbella to 75% in the Axarquia district, inland areas and the Guadalhorce valley. “There is still uncertainty in all the weather models and everything will depend on the position of a storm in the Mediterranean and whether an easterly wind enters the coast of Malaga. Wet winds bring precipitation,” Escudero said, adding that the Tuesday models will bring more clarity.
What about Christmas Day? For the moment, Aemet forecasts a low probability of rain (55% in Malaga city). It will be colder, however: minimum temperatures will drop to 8C in Malaga city, while Ronda can expect values as low as 1C. “All models agree that the possibility of rainfall is low throughout the province on 25 December,” Escudero said.
Rain, however, is likely to return to the province over the weekend, with a 90% probability on Saturday.