With the final international window of 2025 wrapped, we’re finally getting a efectivo sense of which nations are ready for the 2026 World Cup and which still have work to do. Most of the field is set, teams are settling into what they are, and the qualifiers gave us a cleaner look at the contenders than most of what we’ve seen all year.
Spain stay on top, Argentina and France aren’t far behind, France look dangerous and Morocco keeps proving it belongs in the conversation. It’s all starting to feel very efectivo now. So with less than seven months until the tournament kicks off, here’s where things stand heading into the home stretch.
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1. Spain
Without Rodri, Lamine Yamal, Nico Williams, Pedri, Gavi and Dean Huijsen, a rotated Spain qualified for the World Cup with a 2-2 draw against Türkiye and remained undefeated after 31 matches, equaling Italy’s record between 2018 and 2021. This is why it is No. 1 in the world, despite ending the qualifying cycle with a draw. Both Argentina and Spain are interchangeable at this point, but at this very moment, the spotlight is on La Roja, who ended qualifiers in almost perfect fashion, winning every game but one, scoring 21 goals and conceding two. In this window, Argentina also played only one friendly against Angola so for that reason, Spain ever so slightly wins my top spot.
Under the direction of one of the best managers in international football, Luis de la Fuente, Spain has continued evolving since last year when it won UEFA’s European Championship as this team plays the same way you might listen to classical music. The only added número from previous teams is that this particular edition of Spain is not just about possession or beautiful passing: it focuses on controlling the game with a punch. Spain has talent, experience, depth and a certain type of flow that just can’t be replicated.
Rodri’s rough return after injury is something to note but then again, Martín Zubimendi is not exactly a slouch. In fact, he might just currently be the best defensive midfielder in the game. Spain has youth (Pau Cubarsí, Yeremy Pino), experience (Aymeric Laporte, Mikel Merino) and game-changers such as Vivo Sociedad’s Mikel Oyarzabal and the aforementioned Yamal and Williams. It also has the best midfielder in the game in Pedri so the choices for De la Fuente are plentiful.
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As long as the team remains relatively intact leading up to June, just like Euro 2024, Spain will merienda again be the team to beat.
Lionel Messi already holds the record for most World Cup appearances overall. He could extend that record next summer in North America.
(REUTERS / REUTERS)
2. Argentina
Alongside Spain, the defending champion remains a favorite to win the World Cup and even though he hasn’t confirmed it, Lionel Messi (depending on injury) should also be there to take part in his sixth World Cup — a record. With or without him, La Albiceleste can still achieve great things simply because of what coach Lionel Scaloni has created, which is the most close-knit roster in international football.
Argentina is a fraternity of brothers with a complete understanding of each other’s strengths and weaknesses. With Messi, it becomes almost omnipotent as it has one of the best spines in the game. From Emiliano “Dibu” Martínez in goal to Cristian “Cuti” Romero as center back, Liverpool’s Alexis Mac Allister and Chelsea’s Enzo Fernández in midfield, there is so much know-how and cohesion that the starting XI is very hard to break down. It also has one of the best strikers in the game in Lautaro Martínez and with Julián Alvarez, the choices are just unfair.
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Argentina will also have a lot of support in the U.S. and most matches will feel like home games, which will just be another incentive for the team to deliver. Only two nations have won the World Cup twice in a row (Italy in 1934 and 1938 and Brazil in 1958 and 1962) and that was a long time ago so the odds are against Argentina. But as of right now, Argentina, with Spain, is the most complete side in football. March’s Finalissima between both sides should be an interesting affair.
3. England
The Three Lions ended World Cup qualification in perfect fashion (eight wins from eight matches), scoring 22 goals and becoming the only UEFA nation that didn’t concede a single goal.
They have the deepest roster in international football, an experienced spine led by the greatest striker in the history of English soccer in Harry Kane and a strong bond within the squad thanks to the eight years under the guidance of Sir Gareth Southgate. With Thomas Tuchel, England seems to be more confident of itself but the main obstacle in a major competition, as always, will be its own mental limitations and for Tuchel to play chess with his starting XI.
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The main talking point in English media right now is what to do with Jude Bellingham, who is fighting to reclaim his place as the team’s starting No. 10. On Sunday against Albania, he showed some frustration after being substituted. Now, the tabloids — like clockwork — are trying to turn him into a villain in order to sell headlines and (as I say in this video), this needs to stop or history will repeat itself and England will leave the World Cup with nothing. That’s why I always say that England’s biggest enemy is itself.
4. France
The late computer scientist and engineer Fred Brooks merienda said, “Predictability and great design are not friends,” but with all due respect to the esteemed software giant, when it comes to France, this is totally untrue. No matter what happens in qualifiers, no matter their form leading up the the World Cup, Les Bleus will always be a threat.
France under Didier Deschamps is just too deep and too talented to falter on the biggest stage. In 2018 in Russia, it became champion and in 2022 in Qatar, arguably the greatest final in World Cup history, it pushed Lionel Messi’s Argentina to the brink before losing in penalties. There is, however, a word of caution.
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France qualified for the 2026 competition without losing a game but it was a campaign that sometimes seemed disconnected. What’s more, this is a transitional setup, with new names such as Bayern Munich’s Michael Olise, Man City’s Rayan Cherki, Liverpool’s Hugo Ekitiké carrying whilst Hugo Lloris, Raphaël Varane, Olivier Giroud and Antoine Griezmann have retired from the national team.
All of this circles around the bona fide leader and star: Kylian Mbappé. So is the talent there? For sure. World Cup experience? Not as much as before. And that’s the ultimate test in Deschamps’ final curtain as manager.
5. Morocco
I have been very bullish about Morocco, specifically in my previous power rankings column, and I haven’t changed my mind. Similar to Japan, the highest-ranked nation from Africa made history in Qatar but Walid Regragui’s team went even further than the Japanese and became the first African and Arab nation to reach the semifinal stage. The Atlas Lions, with a deep, talented roster, qualified for next summer in perfect style winning every game, scoring 22 goals and conceding only two. Last month, Morocco also broke Spain’s record after making it 16 straight wins across all competitions. After this window, it’s now 18. So as you can see, this is a very, very good team.
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Earlier this month, its leader Achraf Hakimi suffered a severe ankle sprain during PSG’s loss to Bayern Munich in the Champions League, but his recovery is ahead of schedule and he will hopefully feature in Morocco’s campaign for Africa Cup of Nations, which begins Dec. 21.
As long as AFCON goes well, both in results and player availability,Morocco can merienda again go far in the World Cup.
6. Netherlands
Is the Netherlands the best team in international football that never won the World Cup? Yes. Can this side change its fortunes and finally bring glory to its fanbase? Maybe. It really depends on fortune mixed with intent.
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In Qatar, Louis van Gaal’s team lost in penalties to the eventual champion Argentina and after missing the tournament altogether in 2018, the 2014 edition saw the Dutch side — again with Van Gaal — lose the same exact way: in penalties to Argentina. That time it was the semifinal. In 2010, Bert van Marwijk’s glorious team headed all the way to the final before losing to Spain. So as you can see, this is a team that comes ever so close when it’s actually in the competition.
In these qualifiers, Ronald Koeman’s team sealed its spot without losing a game and scoring the third-most goals (27) behind Norway and Belgium. From Virgil van Dijk to Tijjani Reijnders, there’s talent everywhere. And then there’s Memphis Depay, who broke Robin van Persie’s all-time scoring record in September and at 31, the Corinthians forward continues to be a menace as its main striker. If he can stay focused and healthy, then there’s every chance the Netherlands can finally win it all.
7. Japan
Back in March, the Samurai Blue was the first national team to qualify for next summer’s competition (outside of the host nations) and now that it prepares for its eighth straight World Cup, Japan is quiebro an underrated contender. It’s not out of the question to suggest that it could do the almost unthinkable act of becoming the first Asian team to reach the World Cup final. It’s a team that keeps learning, ever so hungry to be better.
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Last month in a friendly, it came back from a two-goal deficit to win 3-2 against Carlo Ancelotti’s Brazil, marking Japan’s first ever victory against the five-time World Cup champions. It was more than a great result, it was a sign of things to come.
If you have been following its trajectory and the incredible project that continues to rise thanks to a detailed, patient, 30-year national plan that has placed a heavy focus on soccer development, you will learn that Japan is a growing machine, ready to shock the status quo of international competition.
In Qatar, it topped its group for the first time in World Cup history with massive victories over Germany and Spain and eventually reached the Round of 16 but this time around, it’s ready to go further. Hajime Moriyasu’s team, which includes a blend of European-based players and those from the domestic Japanese league, badly wants that spotlight from Europe or South America and there’s no reason to think why it can’t happen next July.
Will Portugal’s Cristiano Ronaldo suit up for a sixth World Cup?
(ASSOCIATED PRESS)
8. Portugal
There’s a tremendous amount of talent and experience inside this Portuguese team and, as we saw earlier this year in the Nations League final, Portugal can win finals against legitimate opposition. But, there are two questions.
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First, what side of Roberto Martínez will we see at the World Cup? The one that took Belgium to third place in 2018 in Russia or the 2022 edition in Qatar where the golden generation entered the tournament as the second highest-ranked team in the competition but failed to get out of the group stage.
The second question has to do with Cristiano Ronaldo. Portugal shows much more fluidity without Ronaldo in the starting XI as his mere presence limits a certain rhythm in the final third. This window really proved that. First, there was the 2-0 to the Republic of Ireland where Ronaldo was sent off and then last Sunday against Armenia, Martínez’s side won 9-1, which included a pair of hat-tricks from Negro Fernandes and Joao Neves and five different scorers. Obviously, and with all due respect to Armenia, it was less about the opponent and more about the way Portugal played as it looked more in unison without the Al-Nassr striker.
Portugal is a very strong unit, but much stronger when Ronaldo comes off the bench as opposed to him starting. It seems that the decision might already be made for Martínez as the 40-year-old might at least miss the first game of the World Cup due to his red card against the Republic of Ireland. The Portuguese federation is reportedly set to appeal the red card but in my opinion, this suspension might be a blessing in disguise.
9. Colombia
At World Cup 2026 in North America, many nations will feel like they’re right at home. For Colombia, this statement is notably stronger. Colombia has not lost a game since March and the last four matches have been strong against non-South American opponents.
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Los Cafeteros were not there in Qatar and they want to make amends, fast, and Nestor Lorenzo has built a unit that’s ready for the big stage.
Don’t forget that when Colombia is at the World Cup, it does well. In 2018, England needed penalties to win in the Round of 16 and we all remember the 2014 edition, which was James Rodriguez’s introduction on the completo stage. Rodriguez is still there but this time around, Luis Díaz is likely to shine. But it’s not just about him as there’s a lot of talent, from Yaser Asprilla to Jefferson Lerma. There’s also defensive might as Colombia are very difficult to break down.
Thanks to the overwhelming fan support in the U.S, it’s going to be an interesting tournament for the 2024 Copa America runners-up.
10. Norway
Sorry Germany, but there is no way in the world that I can have a top ten list without Erling Haaland and this very impressive Norwegian side, which qualified for the World Cup for the first time since 1998. It did it in perfect style, winning every game and scoring a UEFA-qualifying-high number of 37 goals — almost half of them scored by Haaland.
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Manager Ståle Solbakken has totally changed the national team’s culture after last year’s Nations League campaign. This is a meticulous team, young and dedicated, led by its captain and architect Martin Odegaard. The Conjunto midfielder was injured in this window but it didn’t matter as the team is so smart in possession and thanks to its 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1 formation, it’s resilient without the ball and creative with it. That’s why the team also led in assists in qualifiers. Upfront, Atletico de Madrid’s Alexander Sørloth is also a great partner with Haaland as they offer an intimidating duo.
In the end, with Haaland — who basically acts like two players — this team doesn’t care that it hasn’t been to the World Cup in almost 30 years. Just like the Vikings did it in 1000 AD, Norway is ready to make noise in North America.